Gasoline is a part of the inflation picture and, when increasing, is a drag on the U.S. economy. However, we expect the scope of the overall economic pain will be less than the last time we experienced gas prices at this level 14 years ago.

Consider that in 2008 the value of the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, was around $14.8 trillion. Today, we estimate, gas prices would need to hit well over $6 per gallon to have the same relative economic drag of $4 gasoline in 2008.

In a related topic, inflation continued to rise, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI). As a result, we believe the Fed will begin raising short-term interest rates.

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