Market Perspective 6/19/2020

Happy Father’s Day and the first official day of summer.

The COVID-19 era of social disconnection, remote working, distance learning, and now a gradual re-opening of the U.S. economy has required us all to change and adapt our lifestyles. As hard as some of these changes have been, especially on the emotional side, there have been silver linings. Some family home schedules, for example, went from scrambling for time between a household full of activities and meals to more relaxed family closeness. Perhaps you have noticed more people out for walks in your neighborhood? Interestingly the benefits of walking, research has found, goes well beyond physical well-being to include emotional well-being, increased energy, and improved sleep.

Ancient Greeks had two words for time: Chronos, which is quantitative and referring to sequential time such as minutes, hours or days, and Kairos, which is qualitative and signifies a moment in time containing a certain permanence and opportunity. When our lives are busy, it can be easy to lose track of where we should be spending our time. We define being frugal as spending resources, typically money, on the aspects of your life that you value the most. We are reminded now that time, above all else, is our most precious resource and to spend it wisely. We hope you can enjoy this weekend, celebrate Father’s Day, and find connectedness. Take in the moments, Kairos time, with those you care about, either in person, virtually, or spiritually.

Market Comments

• U.S. stock markets advanced this week after posting a negative return during the prior week

  • This see-saw of ups and downs is not unexpected; the market has been in repair mode and will likely experience bouts of volatility as conditions change

• Lower for longer -- the U.S. Federal Reserve commented after a recent meeting that they do not expect to increase short-term interest rates until 2023

  • Short-term interest rates are 0-0.25% and remain low to help stimulate economic growth

• The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that a recession the U.S. began in February

  • This recession marks the end of the economic expansion that lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of the U.S. (source: www.nber.org, June 8th, 2020)

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), a business cycle forecasting indicator, increased by a record 2.8% in May, its first increase in four months (source: www.conference-board.org)

  • While this is just one reading, a consistently rising level of LEI suggests the economy is advancing out of a recession

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