The economy and financial markets rarely move in lockstep, especially in the short term. This decoupled nature has long been the case, possibly never more apparent than during the past 90 days.

There are no certainties in how the financial markets will perform in any given year. Regardless of background conditions: market valuations, presidential election years, or who won the Super Bowl, the performance of the market in any given year can vary dramatically.

By now, you may have heard of the stock market recovery taking the shape of numerous letters of the alphabet. Commonly used is the V-shaped recovery. The “V” is represented through a swift decline followed by a swift increase once the inevitable bottom is reached. There are many more shapes being discussed this time around, including; U (decline followed by a flat period before recovery), W, L, and in some cases, the square root sign √. Perhaps you have heard of others?

The US federal government recently shifted gears to allow individual states to open back up based on meeting certain criteria established in the guidelines, Opening Up America Again. Specific to lifting restrictions, states are making separate decisions about when and how they will re-open.

As Midwesterners, we know that warm weather can occur before spring’s grand opening, and yet, we can’t rule out a snow until almost June. In terms of weather, no single day represents a meteorological change of season. One parallel between seasons and financial markets is they both go through cycles and the transitions can take time

Imbalance: lack of proportion or relation between corresponding things. Recessions are broadly defined as a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months. Often, they are a result of imbalances that emerge in the economy.

“The human mind is our fundamental resource.” President John F. Kennedy spoke these words 59 years ago in a special message to congress in reference to our progress as a nation. Nobody knows how the COVID-19 chapter will unfold; however, we believe in the same common conclusion – we will get through this.