Market Perspective: Walking in a Winter Wonderland

Planning ahead empowers us to face unafraid the [financial] plans that we've made. Also, Santa rallies and cyclical trends.

Over the last 30 days, we've seen a large price increase in the stock market. This late-year rally of over 10% may have investors wondering if we'll see a so-called Santa Rally this December.

  • The term "Santa Rally" refers to the tendency for stock prices to rise in the last week of December leading into the first two trading days of January.

  • Like many cyclical trends, we should note that the Santa Rally is not guaranteed.

  • Increased holiday spending, investor optimism, and lower trading volumes due to the holiday season have historically influenced end-of-year stock market rallies.

Using market data going back to the 1920, we zoom out:

  • Decembers are positive 77% of the time.

    • This occurrence is higher than any other month of the year.

  • Septembers, on the other hand, are positive just 49% of the time, marking it the lowest occurrence of a positive return.


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Well Balanced Vol. 25