With expectations set, markets will react to actual earnings vs. what was expected, as well as forward guidance. Forward guidance announcements provided by companies can impact stock prices and even offset a good (or bad) actual results figure.

Corporate earnings season is underway, a time when companies announce prior quarter results and provide forward guidance and expectations

The short period during which the U.S. stock market went into a bear market decline of -34%, bottomed, and then advanced +39% has been remarkable. The stock market decline was matched by a rapid change in the economy, contracting into a recessionary environment with record unemployment figures.

This quarter, the number of guidance announcements to date is about half of the typical amount. This lack of guidance means there are more “assumptions” being made on where earnings will land, which financial markets dislike, and can ultimately lead to an increase in volatility.

Ancient Greeks had two words for time: Chronos, which is quantitative and referring to sequential time such as minutes, hours or days, and Kairos, which is qualitative and signifies a moment in time containing a certain permanence and opportunity. When our lives are busy, it can be easy to lose track of where we should be spending our time.

Remember that the total return of any investment is the combination of income received (interest & dividends) and principal price changes. A low-interest-rate environment can lead investors down a path of taking on unintended risks.

Recent stimulus plans have been designed to increase confidence through words but also through actions of adding money to the economy. M2 money stock, which is a broad measure of the money supply in the economy leaped in recent months. Leaped is possibly an understatement, a chart of M2 now looks like the left-hand side of the Eifel Tower.