Thomas Fee

Tom Fee and Jason discuss the personal and economic considerations of buying a second home. The goal is to own the home and not have it own you. Duration, location, and mortgage rates all play a part.

This quarter, the number of guidance announcements to date is about half of the typical amount. This lack of guidance means there are more “assumptions” being made on where earnings will land, which financial markets dislike, and can ultimately lead to an increase in volatility.

Recent stimulus plans have been designed to increase confidence through words but also through actions of adding money to the economy. M2 money stock, which is a broad measure of the money supply in the economy leaped in recent months. Leaped is possibly an understatement, a chart of M2 now looks like the left-hand side of the Eifel Tower.

The economy and financial markets rarely move in lockstep, especially in the short term. This decoupled nature has long been the case, possibly never more apparent than during the past 90 days.

There are no certainties in how the financial markets will perform in any given year. Regardless of background conditions: market valuations, presidential election years, or who won the Super Bowl, the performance of the market in any given year can vary dramatically.

By now, you may have heard of the stock market recovery taking the shape of numerous letters of the alphabet. Commonly used is the V-shaped recovery. The “V” is represented through a swift decline followed by a swift increase once the inevitable bottom is reached. There are many more shapes being discussed this time around, including; U (decline followed by a flat period before recovery), W, L, and in some cases, the square root sign √. Perhaps you have heard of others?

The US federal government recently shifted gears to allow individual states to open back up based on meeting certain criteria established in the guidelines, Opening Up America Again. Specific to lifting restrictions, states are making separate decisions about when and how they will re-open.

As Midwesterners, we know that warm weather can occur before spring’s grand opening, and yet, we can’t rule out a snow until almost June. In terms of weather, no single day represents a meteorological change of season. One parallel between seasons and financial markets is they both go through cycles and the transitions can take time

Imbalance: lack of proportion or relation between corresponding things. Recessions are broadly defined as a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months. Often, they are a result of imbalances that emerge in the economy.

“The human mind is our fundamental resource.” President John F. Kennedy spoke these words 59 years ago in a special message to congress in reference to our progress as a nation. Nobody knows how the COVID-19 chapter will unfold; however, we believe in the same common conclusion – we will get through this.

Financial market repair is not necessarily a smooth ride. Stock markets tend to move like a pendulum, swinging from side to side, spending a rare amount of time in the uneventful middle

As we enter April, it is hard to believe that the COVID-19 emerged a relatively short time ago. It is not an understatement that the impact, a health crisis that is driving the world economy into a recession, is without precedent in our life experiences.

This week we saw a more concerted effort to address Covid-19 through the worldwide mobilization of medical and financial resources. We watched an unprecedented relief-package make its way through the Congress and Senate. America and much of the world stayed home and practiced social distancing.

There is much that is still unknown; unlike during the Spanish flu epidemic, we are now a very connected world with a significant focus on the mitigation of the worst potential outcomes (minimizing fatalities). 

Whether you’re a Costco shopper or a stock market participant, emotions can dominate decision making. This can cause people to make decisions that they wouldn’t normally make, like sell stocks in a panic or double- (quadruple-) down on household goods.